Module 3:

Conducting the Threat/Risk Assessment


Learning Objectives

Identify key areas associated with risk a pertaining to

special events

•What could happen –threats
•What are your weaknesses –vulnerabilities
•What would be the consequences –impact


This module is about assessing the risk associated with

an event –the rest of the course is about managing it.


Why Assess Risk?

Special event planning now always takes into
consideration the possibility of a catastrophic event. The
worst-case scenario is much worse since 9/11, and it is
more conceivable. Threat assessments are now
done before all special events.
First Deputy Commissioner Patricia Giorgio-Fox,
Philadelphia Police Department


Defining Terms

Risk–overall danger associated with an event
Threat–likelihood of adverse intentional, 
accidental, or natural activity

Vulnerability–weakness in protection 
against adverse activity

Impact–effects or consequences of adverse
activity if it occurs


Examples of Threats

•Terrorists: foreign and domestic
•Criminals
•Hooligans
•Protesters
•Insiders (corrupt, disgruntled, irresponsible workers)
•Weather and natural disasters
•Accidents (fire, traffic, building collapse)
•System/technological failures (power, water, 
ventilation, communication)



Examples of Vulnerabilities

•Inadequate or unprepared staff
•Inadequate communications (technical or human)
•Inadequate access control
•Inadequate intelligence
•Inadequate planning
•Inadequate command and control
•Inadequate emergency response capacity
•Others –refer to threats



Examples of Impact

•Loss of life
•Serious injury
•Economic loss
•Disruption/cancellation of event
•Embarrassment
•Psychological effects (fear, terror)
•Symbolic effects



Making Assessments

•Assign assessment responsibility to an individual 
or team.
•Get detailed information about the event, venues, 
hotels, transportation, etc.
•Profile participants and identify dignitaries.
•Interview event planners and promoters.
•Get threat information from intelligence sources.



Calculating Risk

•Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Impact (R = T x V x I)
•Not as technical as it appears –just a method for 
combining the three separate judgments about 
threat, vulnerability, and impact
•See handout “Risk Assessment for Special Events”



Using the Risk Calculation

•Rate each of the three factors (T,V,I) from 1=low to 
4=critical.
•Multiply to get a score from 1 to 64.
•Check the risk level on the handout “Risk Levels 
for Special Events.”
•Do a reality check based on the risk level –does it 
seem too high or too low –and adjust the factor 
ratings if appropriate.



Using the Information

•High threat –look at prevention, preemption, event 
cancellation, etc.
•High vulnerability –look at infrastructure protection, 
system improvement, etc.
•High impact –justifies more planning and 
preparation, more resources applied, outside help
•Overall risk level –guides prioritization and 
decision making



Conclusion



Tabletop Exercise:

Continuation of Module 1 Tabletop Exercise, 

“Pre-Planning for Major Events”


BREAK